His unsuccessful 2019 registration was his ninth attempt in a row. Russia’s future and historical perspective depend on how many of us there are (I would like to start the main part of my Address with demography), how many children are born in Russian families in one, five or ten years, on these children’s upbringing, on what kind of people they become and what they will do for the country, as well as on the values they choose as their mainstay in life. That way, for some people, expressing liberal views in an anti-Western fashion becomes a means of legitimising them; they sacrifice the “Western” aspect in order to hang on to the “liberal” aspect that is more important to them personally. 07/02/2021 - 19:37. The first instinct of a superficial Western observer might be to applaud the phenomenon and interpret it as a sign that Russia is finally ready to “shake off Putin’s dictatorship,” and return to the path of democracy that was taken by central Europe, but that Russia abandoned at some point during the 1990s. According to lawyer Ivan Zhdanov, Navalny’s team has no plans to re-submit the registration documents to the Justice Ministry following the Supreme Court’s decision. The “Russia of the Future” party that was dismantled on Monday, September 21, first appeared on the Justice Ministry’s list of registered political parties at the end of May 2019. 21 Dec 2020 | Connor Dilleen. The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. When it comes to expressing their position, public protest is not their first choice for doing so, but last. “We have communicated the case to the European Court of … Of Borscht and Protests: The Female Future of Russia’s Opposition. All the while, Medvedchuk’s position may be placed under direct threat due to the slow disintegration of Russian state mechanisms and hypothetical internal conflicts in Russia. Voting in that ended July 1. Moreover, Russia is among the countries which have the highest abortion rates. The Future of Sino-Russian Commercial Aviation "Typically for the USA, it assumed until recently that the Chinese civil aviation market was its own for the asking" for a total of $350 billion over 20 years . It would have been created if Europe, intoxicated by euphoria and afflicted by strategic dementia in the 1990s, had not rejected the idea of building a common space with Russia. Also, Russia is a top-down country. Even more importantly, it is not actually the protest itself that matters here. The Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, recovering from a Novichok attack, duping a would-be assassin into telling him how the chemical weapon was put on his underpants. The Development of Modern Russia. Turkey forges a strategic future independent of Russia and the West. They could lead the country to change from the top. Russia's development of ground combat capabilities is likely to continue to focus on long-range strike, C4ISR, and rapidly deployable forces. It should stop using the words “pro-Western,” “democrat,” and “liberal” as synonyms in the Russian context, as not all Russian democrats are necessarily liberal, and not all liberals or democrats are inevitably pro-Western. Russian authorities have refused to extradite Lugovoi, staining Russia-UK relations. Notably, this party has no relation to the party by the same name, which opposition figure Alexey Navalny unsuccessfully applied to register in 2019. Future Russian Capabilities. But the few people who turned up to defend Safronov were not die-hard opposition supporters, nor alienated souls from the provinces. What does it look like? The best targeted sanctions are unlikely to convince Russia to abandon the role in shaping the future of Venezuela. When considering Russia’s future leadership, I had long operated under the assumption that when Putin finished his fourth term, there would be a hand-picked successor in line to inherit the title, just as there was in 2008 when Medvedev was elected. “There are many policies I disagree with – the idea of a sovereign internet, the arrest of [theatre director Kirill] Serebryannikov, and so forth – but I do not want to emigrate, and I do not think that Russia is [part of the] West,” one foreign policy expert described their position to me. The Orthodox revival in Russia today is closely bound up with the future of the Russian land. In previous years, the Justice Ministry refused to register his party on the grounds that there were already parties with the same names, or over alleged paperwork errors. In the context of the discussion on the role of Russia in the international world, let us analyze the civilizational aspect of today's geopolitical realities. There is hardly any sociological research about them, but an interested Russia-watcher is likely to spot them in many walks of life. The lack of a resolution remains a hurdle for bilateral relations. The reaction I received points visibly in a different direction. These questions are being debated in Russia itself, and the West cannot refrain from pondering them either. There are homegrown democrats in Russia who do not automatically sympathise with the West. Maybe most astonishingly, the tendency can be observed even among the law enforcement services and security forces. Navalny had submitted the documents to register his party earlier that same month. And if we assume that the more suppressive the regime gets, the more it needs to rely on loyalists, the thinner and poorer its professional base becomes, and the more fragile its future … And it will seek and find them. The Biden administration must reflect on how the latest Sino-Russian collaboration should be factored into its emerging approach to Vladimir Putin’s Russia. The Navalny protests showed the impressive geographical reach of a semi-organised opposition – boosted on this occasion by a general sense of dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in the country, and moral outrage over Navalny’s arrest, the glaring unfairness of which went beyond many people’s threshold of indifference. If asked to name the most important political protests that took place in Russia during the first year of the covid-19 pandemic, most people would likely mention the Navalny protests of early 2021 and the demonstrations in Khabarovsk that lasted for the whole second half of 2020. The Soviet democrats did not know the West, but admired it unconditionally. Yet, as a phenomenon, these smallest of protests were in some ways the most curious ones – and this has to do with who turned up and why. “People want to preserve their identity, progressiveness, initiative, freedom … but the West for them is not an example of liberalism, but an example of its death.”. Russia will likely adjust its prioritization of ground combat capabilities based on changes in its political and economic future; across a range of scenarios, Russia will also likely invest in capabilities associated with strategic deterrence, regional dominance, and internal security In this major you'll learn how Russian society has changed over centuries. But the same can be observed in many other walks of life, for instance, among foreign policy professionals who can be most astutely critical of Russia’s domestic politics, but for whom this does not automatically translate into sympathy or even respect toward the West. Its agents are less likely to be from among the intelligentsia and more likely to be from among the professional class or medium-sized business owners. Sadly, however, most of these terms remain predominantly proclamatory; there is no concrete meaning to them. Journalists are maybe the least surprising representatives of this breed. Moscow: President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia has a strong edge in designing new weapons and that it has become the only country in … The bulk of those who turned up were Moscow-based journalists, often former colleagues of Safronov – people who work not just for opposition media, but also and mostly for state-approved or state-owned media channels. They are driven not by liberal ideology, but by their personal conscience and professional ethics. It is a great step forward to develop such an advanced combat suit for its soldiers. Interestingly, in its attempt to secure its future, the Putinist system is also trying to bind in the professional class, rather than just loyalists or children of today’s cluster of power holders. Recent analysis of Turkey’s foreign policy tends to focus on several complementary narratives. Although the prospect for future arms reduction with Russia seems bleak, given the stakes involved with nuclear weapons, the next President should seek opportunities to engage Russia on this issue if possible. A Putin loyalist, he would be well-positioned electorally, having not only the support of the regions, but also having done much to make Moscow … You will develop an appreciation of Russian literature, drama and film, and master a language spoken by 200 million people. 07/02/2021 – HR/VP Blog – I went to Moscow this week to test, through principled diplomacy, whether the Russian government was interested in addressing differences and reversing the negative trend in our relations. Those Pesky Sino-Russians. Develop competence in skills that can lead to careers in business, education, law or various other fields. I painted a poster calling for openness and fairness and chose the first place that looked close enough to the FSB’s [Russia‘s counter-intelligence service] main building to me. By Leyla Latypova. Likewise, to truly unlock his potential as a policymaker (not just a regime-breaker), Alexey Navalny might need a change in the Kremlin that comes from inside the system. Opposition politician Alexey Navalny has been attempting to register his own political party under various names since 2012. Today’s striving for rules and standards is not rooted in an admiration of the Western model, but in real-life needs at home. This is how she described her motivation to protest in an email to me: “I worked with Ivan for many years. Aleksei Navalny and the Future of Russia Over the weekend, a standoff between President Vladimir Putin and his loudest critic became a showdown in the streets. This means that the West should give up its (sometimes subconscious) hopes of seeing Russia set the clock back to 1991 and starting it all over, with “proper democrats” in charge. Russia's military forces will generally meet their security goals within available resources. “It is disillusionment with the West as well as an attempt to accommodate oneself in Russia’s domestic political system,” the Paris-based analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, who coined the term “anti-Western liberals” in reference to the recent statements by the theatre director Konstantin Bogomolov and politician Grigory Yavlinsky, explained to me in recent emails. And if we assume that the more suppressive the regime gets, the more it needs to rely on loyalists, the thinner and poorer its professional base becomes, and the more fragile its future looks – then where is the point of no return or the tipping point? They are suspicious of ideology and organised movements, suspecting hidden beneficiaries behind both; but they want to be able to look at themselves in the mirror, and to make the world – or at least Russia – a better place, if in small ways. While the election prompts uncertainty about what the future holds for politics in Russia, it also calls into question hopes for sustained democracy worldwide. The … The case became politicised, leading to the mutual expulsion of diplomats in 2007 and the cutting of British ties with the FSB. T o anticipate the full argument: Putin has been a ruler of consequence for Russia. I attempt both kinds of extrapolation, progressive and regressive, in the following discussion of Russia’s future. Media in category "Russia of the Future" The following 2 files are in this category, out of 2 total. And yes, among them were journalists from what is called the “Kremlin pool,” i.e., those who have been cleared to cover the work of and travel with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Unfortunately, the third pillar of the future world order, the third technological platform has never materialized. Russia has made increasing use of information warfare to influence the internal affairs of its neighbors and adversaries … My visit to Moscow and the future of EU-Russia relations . But it needs foreign markets and partners for economic, technological, and digital development. “Members of the security forces are increasingly willing to express criticisms of the government and their own conditions,” he writes, noting that in the future the government may have to fight for “the hearts and minds of [its] praetorians.”. News. Russia’s Supreme Court has liquidated the political party “Russia of the Future” (“Rossiya Budushchego”) on the application of the Justice Ministry, reports Interfax. Ankara is seen to be slowly moving away from its NATO partners and towards Russia. Instead, it should keep an open mind to those curious indigenous sprouts of democracy that spring from the ugly political soil of today’s Russia. Moscow may have made history in 1961 when the first manned spaceflight orbited the earth, but Russian prospects of future missions to far-away planets are looking more limited because of political tensions, one expert claims. Print. “The defining characteristic of a member of Putin’s successor generation is a resemblance to Austrian writer Robert Musil’s ‘man without qualities,’” is how Ivan Krastev and Gleb Pavlovsky have described the emerging administrative class. But what is important, and unlikely to disappear, is the wider phenomenon that made these protests possible: the emergence in Russia of a growing and influential social layer of people who wish to have rules, laws, and ethical standards. Today’s agents of democracy are the opposite – they know the West better, but take a bleaker view of it. The role for the West is to offer respectful but politely distant support to both – as opposed to assuming that micromanaging democratic change in Russia is the West’s duty that it failed to discharge in the 1990s, and hence needs to try again. This article was first published in Internationale Politik Quarterly, on 30 March 2021. Under its emerging system, Russia would be a country governed by McKinsey consultants who are loyal to Putin and will preserve his policies once he is gone.” Thus, according to this counter-theory, people’s professional standards will not translate into politically meaningful demands, but rather, political loyalty will be the key for professional fulfilment; the first condition that gives access to professional jobs to start with. In fact, a much more flexible line will be chosen for the pro-Russian movement in the future, but it will be more post-Soviet-paternalistic than Slavophile-conspiratorial. We will store your email address and your personal data as detailed in our privacy notice. In other words, they are quite unlikely to be subversives or revolutionaries. But in that vision, the future Russia will be administered by technocrats whose professionalism is brilliant, their loyalty unquestionable, but their positions adjustable according to the orders of the day. But what is important, and unlikely to disappear, is the wider phenomenon that made these protests possible, the iceberg of what the protests were but a small fleetingly visible tip: namely, the emergence in Russia of a growing and influential social layer of people who wish to have rules, laws, and ethical standards; who, furthermore, apply the same standards to themselves, but who are not revolutionaries; who often (professionally) collaborate with the powers that be; and who do not necessarily have a positive view of the West or Western democracy. Share . ― Angela Stent, author of Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest (2019) Nina Jankowicz has written an essential account of the contemporary information war waged by Russia. According to lawyer Ivan Zhdanov, Navalny’s team has no plans to re-submit the registration documents to the Justice Ministry following the Supreme Court’s decision. In June 2019, the Justice Ministry refused to register Navalny’s “Russia of the Future” party, on the grounds that there was already an existing political party with this name. It will be something different: homegrown democratisation that does not necessarily take the West as an unconditional model. In compliance with Organic Law 15/1999, of 13 of December, on Personal Data Protection, and the development of Rules of Procedure, approved by Royal Decree 1720/2007, of 21 of December, Atlas of the Future subscribers may be required to provide Personal Data, which will be included in a file owned by Democratising The Future Society SL. Which way it goes may be one of the big questions for Russia’s future: will people’s personal and professional standards end up pressuring the regime to reform, or will the regime manage to recruit enough loyalists to fill the ranks and ignore such demands? The latter may, but does not have to, include participation in public protests. In June 2019, the Justice Ministry refused to register Navalny’s “Russia of the Future” party, on the grounds that there was already an existing political party with this name. The demand for rules and standards is in many important ways quite different from the pro-democracy movement of the late 1980s and early 1990s. One of those who got arrested after her single-person protest was Elena Chernenko, the diplomatic correspondent of the Kommersant daily newspaper, and as such a regular presence at the Russian foreign ministry. London-based Russia expert Mark Galeotti, who keeps an eye on those circles, has repeatedly described cases of people in uniform choosing to serve the letter of the law, as opposed to the political order of the day. Russia and China often use the same terms to describe the future they desire: multipolarity, a post-Western world, the indispensability of the rule of law, the indivisibility of security, and so on. Few would think of – or even remember – the small, mostly one-person demonstrations from July 2020, when a handful of people turned up to protest against the arrest of the journalist Ivan Safronov, accused of betraying state secrets. “We have communicated the case to the European Court of Human Rights, and we aren’t planning any new filings in the near future,” he said. A mouldering billion-dollar neo-Italianate palazzo atop a Black Sea cliff face. “It is a means of adaptation as well as a natural process that is linked to growing alienation from the West, mutual incomprehension,” stresses Stanovaya. That was the first time I had to go to a police station and the first time that I found myself in a court afterwards.”. The working theory was that the successor was Sergei Sobyanin, the current Mayor of Moscow. By the parameters of protests these one-person demonstrations by (semi-)insiders will always be small and may now stop altogether as the screws are being tightened once again and the Kremlin’s tolerance for dissent is diminishing even further. The Khabarovsk protests may have testified to the Kremlin’s inability to understand the thinking and emotions in far-away corners of the country, or to address their concerns. The future of Navalnyism in Russian politics. Russia, Iran And The Future Of Syria's Assad May 18, 2020 By Alireza Taheri; Russian President Vladimir Putin, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visit the headquarters of Russian forces in Damascus, January 7, 2020 . Following the fall of the Soviet Union, several developments shaped the newly emerging state of Russia in a way that pushed it toward the creation of an authoritarian system. Instead, they came from the Kremlin – or, well, almost. These people are most often to be found in professional circles; they are often of prime working age; and their demand for rules and laws has grown out of professional standards and personal ethics. For Andrey Sakharov to transform from a moral icon into a political figure needed a Mikhail Gorbachev who released him from his exile in Gorky and allowed him to be elected to the Congress of People’s Deputies. “He or she is best described as an expert in logistics with no identifiable political convictions or loyalty to a constituency. But that is dangerous – you identify with the enemy and share his values.”. We will never send you any content that is not ECFR related. That leaves journalists – quite regardless of their personal political views – with an unenviable choice: to change profession, to redefine their profession, or to try to find a way to demand a more lawful environment. His arrest prompted similar, if somewhat bigger, demonstrations of solidarity, which resulted in his release, and also, highly unusually, in the trial of the police officers who had tried to frame him. Except this is not the first such occasion: in 2019, the journalist Ivan Golunov was arrested, with drugs planted on him by police officers. Russian Disinformation and Interference in Domestic Politics. Highlights 1 in Queensland for modern languages. However, the actual takeaway for Western policymakers should be a different and a simpler one. About China. We wrote a few hundred stories together and I know him as a sincere person who would give his last bit to help others. Russia of the Future; List of largest political parties; 2019 Moscow protests; 2021 Russian protests; Usage on es.wikipedia.org Alekséi Navalni; Rusia del Futuro; Protestas en Rusia de 2021; Usage on eu.wikipedia.org Aleksei Navalni; Usage on fa.wikipedia.org تظاهرات ۲۰۲۱ روسیه; Usage on fi.wikipedia.org Tulevaisuuden Venäjä Any meaningful attempts for democratisation or liberalisation have always started from above and then made use of the pressure from below. That, however, would be misleading. At times, some anti-Western statements by pro-democracy Russians may also include a dose of political positioning. Insinuations about Russia's inevitable turn to the East and Moscow's intent to develop further in the wake of Beijing as a new world leader have been widely advertised during the recent years.